George Osborne has said that if we leave the EU then we will all be £4,300 worse off by 2030. In fact this is what he said.
‘The analysis shows that a vote to leave would mean Britain would be permanently poorer, to the tune of £4,300 a year for every household. Under any alternative, we’d trade less, do less business and receive less investment. And the price would be paid by British families. Wages would be lower and prices would be higher.’
He was commenting on a treasury report that had considered 3 possible directions for the UK if it voted to leave the EU.
Is this true?
Well in my never ending quest to bring you the facts, here is the answer. Yes it is true but it is economical with the truth. First of all no one knows, not even George, he has got his information from computer models which are programmed with lots of information and then asked to predict what might happen. They are probably the best way of predicting what might happen, but they have got it wrong in the past and their present predictions may also turn out to be wrong.
However in the absence of anything better then this is what they have come up with. If we stay in the EU then by 2030 each household will be receiving on average £90,000 a year as compared to £60,000 a year at present. If we leave the EU then by 2030 we will all be receiving £85,700. In fact this is the middle option, they came up with three possible results depending on what sort of deal we manage to strike in the exit negotiations.
So by leaving the EU we wont be worse off than we are now, but we will be worse off than had we stayed in. So strictly speaking he is right but as I said not 100% up front with all the facts.
No matter, if I asked you would you rather be £30,000 better off or £25,700 better off then I think most of you would opt for x better off. However the difference is not that great and if average earnings are as much as £90,000 then £4,300 is just under 5%
To see other posts about our EU membership ( there are obviously 46 others, this being number 47) click EU membership summary And if you think any of them particularly relevant then please feel free to reblog or share them.