You might think that if we vote to leave the EU then what happens to Europe after that is not our concern, that would be very short sighted. Were we to vote for Brexit then that could be the start of a domino effect for the other members of the EU.
Remember the domino effect…. Communists take over in Vietnam, that would lead to the fall of Cambodia, then Laos, then Burma, Singapore and eventually Australia and the entire Western world. Another story another time.
However if we left the EU then it is widely agreed by everyone that there would be a short term effect on interest rates. This would have an important consequence for Greece, because Greece probably has cash to independently make its way until July, when it owes €3.5bn to the European Central Bank. We can expect political fireworks for some weeks before that ultimate deadline. Migrant flows will also increase. And it all looks uncomfortably close to the June 23 referendum on EU membership. If Britons vote to leave the European Union in the upcoming referendum then the uncertainty following a ‘yes’ vote to Britain leaving the EU would put unsustainable pressure on Greece’s cash-strapped economy at a time when it is also struggling to cope with an influx of migrants escaping turmoil in the Middle East and Africa That’s according to a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
So Greece could be forced to leave the EU, Then this might set off an EU earthquake akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall… the words of France’s Marine Le Pen.
61% of Spaniards think that their voice is not heard in the EU, 40 % of Italians think the Euro has not been good for them, Denmark is to hold a referendum on EU membership in December, and every EU country has its sceptics to a greater or lesser extent.
The possible outcome is a 1930’s landscape of simmering nationalist movements with hard nosed reflexes and a further lurch towards authoritarian politics from Poland to Hungary and Slovakia to Romania where the Securitate never entirely lost its grip and Nicolae Ceausescu is back in fashion.
Pocket Putins are likely to flourish. The real Vladimir Putin will be waiting for his moment of maximum mayhem in Europe to try his luck with ‘little green men’ in Estonia or Latvia knowing that nothing can stop him restoring the western borders of the former USSR.
Would this then lead to world war 3 with NATO being forced into a conflict caused by the decline or break up of the EU power base.
This post partly based on an article in the Daily Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Prichard entitled ‘Brexit may change Europe for ever but not in the way Mr Gove thinks. (The words in italics are taken from this article).
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